As recently as June 2019, after just three long Pandemic-filled years, the Metro Denver residential inventory was 30,000 units, slightly increasing until September of that year and receding until February of 2022 when the cumulative monthly inventory stood at 9,004. The graph demonstrates the sharp decline, with the expected increase in the spring. How does a vibrant market like Denver experience that kind of drop in market vitality?
1. A presidential election. No matter the outcome, half of the country was going to be emotionally distressed, egged on by a media that makes money in reporting or creating negative information. This distress shows in a population that is often fearful to sell their present residence.
2. A Pandemic. Starting in March of 2020, the United States, along with the rest of the World, began the long, slow slide into a Pandemic economy. While available inventory was reasonable in the spring of 2020, the drop was perceptible as people continued to respond to the effects of the health crises. People that could buy a home did so, creating panic buying, while many homeowners became very cautious in protecting what they had.
3. Inflation. For the first time in many years, American citizens began to feel the effect of increasing prices and, as we moved into 2022, sharply increasing interest rates. Only now are we seeing inventory increase as home buyers are becoming skittish in response to rising mortgage rates.
4. A raging war in Europe. The United States has increasingly become engaged in a proxy war with Russia, supplying Ukraine with both lethal and non-lethal material to defend against Russian aggression. While the war seems a long way off, some people are beginning to get nervous about the possible impact on or to the United States.
5. The combination of the above, along with various regional and employment stability issues, have served to reverse the buying spree that was evident during the height of the Pandemic. It is uncertain today if the rise in inventory is the result of normal spring increases, or portends a more serious reversal in the home sector.
Source of Graph: REcolorado